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Shanghai: Despite China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange falling more than 15% last year due to various market uncertainties, foreign financial institutions remain sanguine about their 2023 prospects in the Chinese capital market.
Their confidence stems from signs that China’s economy will stabilise even more going forward, on the back of continual optimsation of the Covid-19 control measures, according to market mavens.
Other factors brightening investor sentiment toward Chinese securities are gross domestic product (GDP) growth hopes, and improved business confidence levels.
There are expectations that the unemployment rate, inflation and debt default risks will remain manageable, while supportive policies will help the property industry and other struggling sectors like travel, tourism, hospitality and catering see a turnaround.
Goldman Sachs, for one, has told its clients that they should consider increasing their exposure to Chinese stocks this year as they are expected to outshine those from the rest of the world.
Goldman analysts reasoned that China’s GDP growth rate would come in at an estimated 4.5% this year, up from an estimated 3.3% in 2022 (8.4% in 2021, 2.2% in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, and 6% in 2019, the last pre-pandemic figure).,
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The US investment bank has stamped an overweight rating on A shares for this year, and estimated the 2023 return of the CSI 300 index, a benchmark of 300 A-share large-caps, will come in at around 16%.
Wendy Liu, JPMorgan’s chief China equity strategist, estimated that the A-share market’s average earnings per share would surge 14% this year, which would be on a par with the level seen in August 2022.
“Northbound capital” that overseas investors pump into A shares via the stock connect mechanism linking the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong bourses will report a net inflow of US$30bil (RM130bil) this year, up from US$13bil (RM56.3bil) in 2022 but still behind the US$63bil (RM273bil) seen in 2021, Goldman experts said.
They said China’s unemployment rate would likely decline this year, while consumer confidence would recover as incomes improve.
So, travel, restaurants, entertainment and airlines will likely see room for recovery in profitability this year.
Kinger Lau, Goldman’s chief China equity strategist, said: “Chinese stocks listed on both the A-share market and overseas markets will improve their performance relative to their peers this year, given the relatively relaxed macroeconomic policies and rising GDP growth rate.”
Many more foreign institutional investors have a similar bullish stance on Chinese stocks.
In a Dec 8 report, Morgan Stanley experts said the Chinese stock market would likely stand out among those of the emerging economies and even overtake those of the rest of the world this year.,